"Euro" a do te kete sukses??? - Nga Enip!

[Dita]

Euro Hits Dollar Parity For First Time Since 2000

A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP


NEW YORK -- The dollar's continuing retreat sent the euro above parity for the first time in more than two years during London trading Monday, and the common currency held that level as trading crossed the Atlantic.

In early New York trading, the euro was at $1.0031, up from 99.10 U.S. cents late Friday in New York. Its session high is $1.0036.

The dollar was at ¥115.94, sharply down from ¥116.86 late Friday in New York. Sterling jumped to $1.5638 from $1.5509 late Friday, marking a 27-month low for the dollar against the currency.

Amid general dollar weakness centering on a sluggish performance by equity markets, the euro's move "does seem to be extended; it does look like it's got some legs," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC in New York, who put the next hurdle for the euro at $1.0120.


After weeks of near misses, the European currency finally pushed above $1 at 1110 GMT in London, breaking through a key psychological level. In so doing, the euro has easily outperformed most currency analysts' expectations made earlier this year.

In retrospect, "the pace of the move has caught everyone by surprise," said Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist with Investors Bank & Trust in Boston. Absent robust European economic data, "the fact that investor confidence in the U.S. has really fallen has definitely helped the euro's cause," he added.

Jes Black, currency analyst at MG Financial in New York, said the next key technical level for the euro is $1.0150, but some traders are going to begin taking profits now that the single currency has hit parity. "It's going to be increasingly hard for the euro to just keep taking gains," he said.

The European Central Bank, in keeping with its practice of not commenting on movements in the foreign-exchange market, kept silent on the euro's matching the dollar. ECB officials have already welcomed the euro's appreciation as a factor helping keep euro-zone inflation in check.

The strong euro relieves inflationary pressure in Europe by making imported goods and energy cheaper. For Americans, their currency's weakness means costlier European vacations, but eases price disadvantages for U.S. manufacturing exporters, who have complained about the strong dollar for months.

The decline of U.S. stocks and the accounting scandals besieging corporate America have driven down the dollar.

Foreign investors' eagerness to buy U.S. stocks during the boom of the late 1990s was one of the things that kept the dollar high against foreign currencies, because investors need dollars to purchase U.S. investments. For years, that was enough to offset the huge U.S. current account deficit, the broadest measure of foreign trade, running at $417 billion last year and showing no sign of abating this year. When Americans buy more from overseas than they can sell, that puts downward pressure on the dollar.

The euro has risen from about 87 U.S. cents in early April. It hit its all-time high shortly after its launch on Jan. 1, 1999, but then began to slide, falling through the $1 mark in February 2000 and hitting a record low of 82.30 cents in October 2000.

Since then, the euro has staged several tentative rallies, but they had always fizzled before matching the dollar.

The euro's supporters had hoped the new currency would challenge the dollar as the favored currency of investors and central bankers, and parity could give them a public relations boost.

Meanwhile, in the wake of more comments by Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa, currency traders remained confused as to why his ministry hasn't intervened since June 28 in its effort to check the appreciation of the yen and to guard an export-led recovery in Japan's economy.

"Why the Japanese aren't intervening, we just don't really know," said Mr. Black. "They're very likely to intervene if [the dollar] falls below ¥115.75."

Over the weekend, Mr. Shiokawa said the dollar ought to be trading around ¥125 to ¥130, again breaking what many regard as the cardinal rule of never discussing specific levels. Mr. Shiokawa also has mentioned the ¥115 level in public comments several times, prompting many market players to conclude that the Ministry of Finance will refrain for now from further intervention.

Updated July 15, 2002 10:05 a.m. EDT

[alvi]

Ore sa kohe qe Evropa vazhdon me praktika socialiste ne ekonomi Dollari ka per te sunduar i pamposhtur. Kur Evropa te uli taksat dhe te heqi kontrollin e madh te shtetit dhe te nxisi biznesin, dmth kurre, atehere ndoshta Euro do ti afrohet dollarit. Dollari qe ra dje, biznesmenet ketu ne USA kane 3 vjet qe ankohen pse dollari eshte kaq i forte.

[Dita]

Arsye per kete levizje te euros dhe perkeqesim te dollarit jepen zhvillimet e pasigurta ne ekonomine amerikane dhe skandalet e bilanceve te firmave te medha qe vazhdojne te ndodhin.

Ne oren 16.15 monedha evropiane mberriti ne Frankfurt ne kuoten e 1,0063 USD.

Ne ditet e fundit ka pasur nje rrjedhje te konsiderueshme parash jashta USA. Nese skandalet e parregullsive te bilanceve zgjasin nje perkeqesim i metejshem i dollarit eshte mese i mundshem.

(Reference: Spiegel.de)

[visitor]

Vendi me ekonomine me te forte duhet te kete monedhen me te forte. Nqs ekonomia Europiane eshte me e paster/me e forte se ajo Amerikane atehere Euro do tja marri dollarit por per mendimin tim edhe firmat Europiane s'jane te paprekura nga mashtrimet. Para disa ditesh psh u tha qe Deutsche Telecom mund te kishte manipuluar bilancin duke rritur pronat/asetet dhe investimet kapitale/afat gjata. Gjithsesi, te shikojme.

[visitor]

Nga ANSA:

L' EURO SUPERA IL DOLLARO, WALL STREET AFFONDA LE BORSE EUROPEE

ROMA - Lunedi' nero per le borse europee, che hanno registrato perdite pesantissime tra il 4 e il 5% nel giorno della parita' dell'euro con il dollaro. A spingere giu' i mercati, oltre all'euro forte che ha depresso i titoli dell'export, la sempre piu' diffusa sfiducia degli investitori dopo i recenti scandali societari americani. Il tutto aggiunto alla nuova cattiva giornata di Wall Street. Le perdite dei listini sono paragonabili a quelle delle drammatiche sedute successive all'attacco agli Usa dell'11 settembre.

L'euro ha raggiunto e poi superato la parita' con il dollaro alle 13.10 di lunedi', dopo 27 mesi di 'inseguimenti', di rocambolesche cadute e di tentativi di risalita. Il rafforzamento dell'euro e' arrivato a un massimo di 1,0087 dollari.





Mbase forcimi i Euros nuk ka aq shume ndikime ekonomike mbi eksportuesit europiane, por tashme eshte kthyer ne nje ligj te pashkruar qe tregu ndikohet shume nga psikologjia e investitoreve, dhe keta investitore duket se mendojne keq per nje Euro te forte. Te shikojme si do te veprojne bankat qendrore.

[mateo]

mos harroni se duhet tia kemi friken asaj, cfare quhet gershetim ekonomi-politike dhe kete gje amerika e ka mjaft te avancuar ne krahasim me Europen, ngritjen e Euros ne keto ditet e fundit, e krahasoj me ate zjarrin qe merr shpejt, por dhe shuhet shpejt.
mos valle amerika po ben findet e saj dhe po i tregon botes, nje ulje te lehte ekonomike per momentin?.... te shohim sa konstante do te jete Euro......

[Dita]

Per levizjen e kursit te shkembimit euro/dollar arsyet qe jepen lidhe me shume me nje dyshim mbi dollarin dhe tregjet e aksioneve amerikane sesa me forcimin e euros.
Eshte nje qendrim anti-dollar, jane kurse ne renie te firmave te medha, skandalet e Enron, Tyco, Worldcom. Si pasoje e renies se kurseve investoret e huaj terheqin parate e investuara.
Deri me sot zhvillimi ne burse ka qene i tillle, qe kohet ne te cilat vlerat ne burse binin ishin me te mirat per te bere blerje. Tani ndryshimi eshte se investoret duket se kane dyshim ne lidhje me renditat ne tregun amerikan ne te ardhmen, dhe nga kjo pasiguri terhiqen nga ky treg. Kjo con ne nje dobesim te metejshem te dollarit.

Problemi per te ardhmen eshte nese ekonomia amerikane do te jete ne gjendje te terheqe aq shume investime sa c'ka nevoje qe te ece perpara.

Kryekonomi i Morgan Stanley, Stephen Roach shprehet se renia e dollarit mund te jete fillim per nje rreth vicioz: Deri tani dollari perfitonte nga nje ekonomi e forte amerikane, tanime mund te kthehet ne nje viktime e dobesise se saj.
Nese dobesia e dollarit vazhdon, atehere kjo do te shkaktonte nje perkeqesim te ekonomise amerikane.


Ndersa ne Evrope zhvillimi eshte tjeter:

Meqe ngritja e kursit te euros kufizon mundesite e inflacionit ekspertet e monedhave presin qe ECB kete jave te mos ngreje interesat. Reuters ka zhvilluar nje pyetsor me 57 ekonome kombetare dhe prej tyre 52 jane shprehur se presin qe interesat te mos ndryshojne. 30 prej tyre presin qe ndryshim te kete me se pari ne shtator dhe 18 prej tyre me se pari ne kuartalin e katert te vitit.



Nje Ekonom gjerman jep kete vleresim per zhvillimin.
Ne periudhen afatshkurter dhe afatmesme renia ne perqindje e eksportit do te kompensohet nga nje kerkese me e larte per mallra importi qe do te perfitojne nga ulja e cmimeve per shkak te kursit te permiresuar te euros. Cmimet e naftes dhe te gazit do te binin meqenese ato akoma tregtohen ne dollare. Por ne veshtrim afatgjate eksportet gjermane do te binin sepse do te beheshin me te shrenjta.

Me te rrezikuara do te ishin industria e automobileve, e makinerive dhe ajo elektronike qe varen shume nga eksportet. E sidomos aty ku prodhimi behet ne seri dhe ku porosite ne radhe te pare varen nga cmimet.

Ne veshtrim afatgjate zgjidhja do te ishte qe te reduktohej varesia nga monedha amerikane. Psh nje mendim do te ishte qe kontratat me liferantet te nenshkruheshin ne dollare qe rreziku te kishte mundesine te mos mbetej tek firmat. Ne veshtrim afatshkurter dhe afatmesem firmat jane te siguruara permes veprimeve me futures apo forwards.

Lidhja e bankave gjermane vlereson se rritja e Euros nuk do ta rendoje ekonomine evropiane per arsye se keto ekonomi jane integruar ne unionin monetar dhe pjesen me te madhe te eksporteve e zhvillojne me njera-tjetren. Si shembull sillet Gjermania qe partnerin me te suksseshem ka Francen.



Reference: spiegel.de

[visitor]

E di qe s'duhet ta kthejme kete diskutim ne postime artikujsh por artikulli i meposhtem eshte per mendimin tim permbledhja e te gjitha diskutimeve:


Europe's hard climb
By Tony Barber
Published: July 15 2002 20:14 | Last Updated: July 15 2002 20:14


In May 2000, when there seemed no end in sight to the euro's fall against the dollar, Wim Duisenberg took the unusual step of issuing a personal statement to the eurozone's 300m citizens.

"The current development of the euro's exchange rate has given rise to questions from European citizens who are concerned about the value of their currency," the European Central Bank president said. "To them, I would like to say the following: I understand their concerns . . . European citizens can be assured that the future of the euro is that of a strong currency, based on price stability and the strength of the European economy."

On Monday, as the euro rose above parity to the dollar for the first time since February 2000, it was Mr Duisenberg who looked wiser than the many pundits who had poured scorn on him two years before. The euro's sharp rise against the dollar on foreign exchange markets this year shows how absurd it was to portray the euro as a currency doomed to perpetual weakness.

It is not that Mr Duisenberg or his ECB colleagues would define a currency's "strength" or "weakness" in terms of its performance on foreign exchange markets. "We do not have a target for the exchange rate," Otmar Issing, the ECB's chief economist, said last month.

The ECB's job has always been to defend not the euro's external value but its internal value - that is, to maintain its value within the 12-nation eurozone by controlling inflation. In that sense, the return to parity with the dollar, though eye-catching, has practically no economic significance at all.

Even though the ECB overshot its 2 per cent target for annual inflation in 2000 and 2001 and may do so again this year, few would dispute that the bank has successfully kept inflation in check. By lowering the cost of imports from outside the eurozone, the euro's recent rise will make the ECB's task easier still.

But that is by no means to suggest that, with parity against the dollar achieved, it is now plain sailing for the euro, the ECB and the European economy.

In the first place, the euro's rise is more a reflection of investors' concerns about US economic and corporate performance than a vote of confidence in Europe. The persistently large US current account deficit and alarm over US accounting practices and corporate profitability have combined with falling US equity markets and pressures on the US federal budget to push down the dollar.

Some European policymakers point to the eurozone's balanced current account, generally low government budget deficits and lack of corporate indebtedness as evidence of the fundamental strength of the area's economy.

Each of these factors certainly exists - but none seems to have been the driving force behind the euro's rise against the dollar. As the ECB noted last week in its July monthly bulletin: "In June the US dollar continued to depreciate in the wake of data releases suggesting that the US economy could be growing at a slower pace than financial markets had previously anticipated . . .

"The movement of the US dollar was particularly pronounced against the euro, which in June also benefited from a widening of the long-term interest rate differential in favour of the euro area since early May."

Naturally, in a region whose citizens gave up using their national banknotes and coins less than six months ago, governments may not be too bothered about the precise reasons why the euro has gone up, allowing them to claim that the area's new currency is a resounding success.

Nonetheless, a rising euro presents potential problems of its own. Though it would be a fruitless exercise to propose an ideal exchange rate for the euro, there is little doubt that the higher it goes, the more economic growth will suffer, mainly because it will be harder for European exporters to stay competitive outside the eurozone.

In Germany, which accounts for almost a third of eurozone economic output, gross domestic product grew by only 0.6 per cent last year. Even this poor performance would have been worse had it not been for an increase in exports, which in turn owed much to the competitive edge provided by the euro's weakness.

When the eurozone achieved gross domestic product growth of 3.4 per cent in 2000, its best performance for a decade, this was to a large extent the consequence of the falling euro.

Conversely, every 10 per cent appreciation of the euro eventually reduces the eurozone's GDP by about 1 percentage point, according to economists at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. For a region whose long-term average annual growth rate the ECB estimates at 2-2.5 per cent, this is a considerable drag on growth.

The good news for the European economy is that the euro's surge to parity against the dollar disguises a less sharp rise against a broader, trade-weighted basket of currencies. By July 3, the euro was 9.2 per cent higher against the dollar than its average value in 2001 but only 4.6 per cent higher on the broader measure. Against sterling, the euro was only 3.3 per cent higher.

In other words, eurozone exporters have not yet lost the full benefit of the long period of euro weakness. Moreover, to protect their market share, many exporters will try to keep unchanged the prices they charge in markets outside the eurozone.

For sure, sooner or later such price restraint is likely to translate into lower profit margins, with all the implications that carries for domestic wages, employment and investment. But it indicates that the eurozone's economic recovery this year need not be immediately blown off course by the stronger euro.

In any case, the ECB, the European Commission and national governments hope that the euro's rise will assist economic growth in another way by reducing inflation and thereby stimulating real household incomes and consumption. The weakness of domestic demand, particularly in Germany, has been an important factor limiting the eurozone's recovery.

Some improvement in domestic demand seems likely, although it may not come until the fourth quarter of this year. In the longer run, what matters is not a temporary pick-up in spending caused by the euro's cyclical fortunes but the kind of permanent boost that ultimately can come only from more decisive economic reforms in the eurozone.

In a recent study the Centre for European Reform, a private research group, said the eurozone had made some progress in liberalising telecommunications markets, reforming the financial services sector, cutting state subsidies and raising workforce participation rates.

On the other hand, the labour market, the utilities and transport sectors and state pensions systems require more forceful measures. The European Union's single market remains incomplete and the EU's goal of becoming the world's most dynamic economic area by 2010 is still more dream than reality.

The election of new centre-right governments in France, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal in the past 16 months may generate more momentum for economic reform. A like-minded government already rules Spain; and Germany's election in September may result in victory for Edmund Stoiber and his centre-right alliance.

Modest steps aimed at freeing labour markets have just been announced in France and Italy. Even Germany's current centre-left administration is considering measures such as encouraging more part-time work, tightening up on jobless benefit claims and removing obstacles to self-employment.

Structural reforms will inevitably take time to produce permanently higher European economic growth rates. But it is the launch of such reforms, rather than the mainly symbolic achievement of restored parity with the dollar, that will mark the day when Europe and the euro have truly earned their spurs.

[Sokoli]

Veshtire ti lexoj dot gjithcka keni shkruar ketu qe nga fillimi, pasi e vura re kete teme me vonese.
Po nje gje dihet ama. Euro do te perparoje (mbase ne menyre te avashte) por nuk ka asgje qe mund ta ndale.
Kjo u vu re qe kur u nenshkrua marrveshja qe Nafta, krahas Dollarit te kuotohet dhe me Euro.

Behuni gati te dashur forumiste qe krahas shenjes $ mbi butonin e tastieres qe permban edhe numrin 4 ndonje dite te shtohet simboli i Euros (mbase do gjendet ndonje tast tjeter, por gjithsesi do te shtohet).

[SUPERSTAR_N1]

ehe Euro po ecen shume mire na fiku fare mund te themi qe e arriti $Dollarin amerikan