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Predictions te analistave per ceshtjen e emigrimit [ne anglisht]
5. Immigration Reform is Enacted
While the national Republican Party is split over Iraq, it is imploding over federal immigration policy. Republicans face continued losses in the Southwest over their anti-immigrant agenda, and Ciro Rodriquez’s upset victory in the Texas special congressional election in December shows the problems Republicans are having with Latino voters in what has recently been a hard-core GOP state.
Immigration reform did not pass in 2006, despite the massive marches, because it was an election year. That’s why the measure will pass in 2007, rather than wait for 2008.
The bill that passes will be better than anything on the table in 2006. The biggest difference is likely to involve those who entered the country since 2006. Rather than create an unworkable system whereby undocumented immigrants would have different rights based on duration in the country, a single rule applicable to either all, or all who have been here for at least two years, is likely to prevail.
There will be some form of guest worker policy in the bill, which is unavoidable given political realities. Some progressives believe such a policy renders any bill unacceptable, but the alternative is keeping eight to ten million people a traffic stop away from deportation.
Immigration reform is the only issue where George W. Bush has shown flexibility. He badly needs to accomplish something, and will sign immigration reform before Congress leaves for the summer.
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