Mbivleresimi i aksioneve te shoqerive dhe pasojat ne burse

[Vinny_T]

Ndermarje qe kane falimentuar ka pase gjithe historine njerzimit keshtu qe nuk eshte kjo arsyja qe ben te rrezikshme investimin ne aksione aktualisht.Enron dhe Worldcom ishin simbolet e ekonomise amerikane , leader ne sektoret qe ato ushtronin aktivitetin. Problemi eshte qe kur dhe Kompani te tilla gjigante prezntojne bilance te fallcifikuara qe normalisht kontrollohen me lupe nga autoritet e kontrollit te burses amerikane, imagjino seç mund te bejne ndermarjet e tjera, problemi eshte se ka nje krize besimi te investiroret dhe nuk ka me asnje autoritet kredibel ne syte e tyre qe te siguroje aksioneret.
E dyta eshte si e thashe me siper, mbivleresimi i kompanive amerikane ( te blesh aksione te nje ndermarje mbi bazen e nje kapitalizimi te 50 here fitimeve te ardheshme te ndermarjes eshte absurditet dhe kljo ndosh ne amerike tani) , ju ftoj te shihni çpo ndodh ne Wall Street ka me shume se 2 jave qe vetem po bije Dow Jones et Nasdaq.
Berti qe te njohesh manaxhimin e nje ndermarje nuk behet duke pire kafe me ta ( kjo behet ne Shqiperi ku dhe kur shkon per pune dhe ke takim zyrtar te thone hajde pime nje kafe te klubi e ne vend qe te punohet ne zyre si gjithe bota "punohet" ne kafe").
Manaxhimi i nje ndermarje shihet duke krahasuar bilancet e ndermarjes me parashikimet e bera nbje vit me pare, dhe shihet historiku i tyre ne vite. Nqs Manaxheret e kesaj ndermrje jane njerez realiste ne parashikimet e tyre qe bejne ne te ardhmen dhe i permbahen ketyre parashikimeve atehere jane njerez kredibel, nqs ata bejne deklarata sencasinale per te ngritur ne nje periudhe afatshkurter kursin ne burse te aksioneve te ndermarjes se tyre, ketyre manaxhereve nuk u behet besim dhe aksionet shiten sa me shpejt. Kjo eshte nje metode se si mund ti njohesh manaxheret po metodat nuk mungojne e jane te shumta mjafton qe ti kerkosh se i gjen, sidomos me mjetet e komunikimit qe kemi ne dispozicion brezi jone.
Pershendetje

[Berti]

Nuk diskutohet qe kane falimentuar historikisht ndermarrje por keto Net Stocks kane qene te falimentuara qe ne fillim.Qe ne kolokimin e tyre ne Wall Street u pa skandali.Kolokime per miliarda dollaresh te shoqerish,te cilat,gjate ketyre 3 vjeteve hengren te gjitha keto miliarda.

E kur e kuptoj une kete,nuk mund te me thote njeri qe nuk e kuptonte Greenspan.Por politika e merkates financiare qe e tille ne ate kohe.Askush nuk e vuri ujin ne zjarr per paret e popullit.

Ne vitet 90,njerezit e thjeshte lane punet e tyre dhe iu futen biznesit te New economy.Me mijera ndermarrje ne nje kompeticion te llahtarshem.E fundi selektiv pritej.Une mendoj qe seleksionimi do te vazhdoje akoma.Kur u ndertua sistemi hekurudhor ne Angli,ne burse u kolokuan rreth 1600 ndermarrje por vetem 16 prej tyre arriten te mbijetojne.

Problemi qendron qe,financa mbetet gjithmone nje supozim,nje hamendje,nje previzion.Sado te shikosh PEG,ROE ROI etj,sado pozitive te jene te dhenat e previzionet e nje ndermarrjeje,lypset te shikosh nese do te realizohen me te vertete.Pastaj mjaft shoqeri profitable jane kthyer ne non dhe e anasjellta.Madje dhe ne raste me te dhena pozitive.

Sikur te kapja 6 ne 10 investime,do te isha njeriu me i lumtur

Por depresioni do te vazhdoje.Gjithe ata kaqola qe donin te benin ndermarrje e biznes e tani jane te papune do te rendojne ekonomise USA

pershendetje

[Vinny_T]

Ata kaqolat qe ti thua kane ngelur pa pune dhe qe do ti rendojne ekonomise amerikane kane pas shpietin e krijimit dhe pse risku ishte i madh. Ekonomia amerikane eshte duke i rringjallur dhe pritet qe kete vit te ket nje zhvillim mbi +3% (perqindje kjo me e larte se evropianja) dhe ne te njeten kohe bursa amerikane vazhdon depresionin e saj!!
Problemi eshte te besimi e jo te papunesia te ftoj te shohesh me nga afer fenomenet qe ndodhin ne NYSE dhe neper bursat e tjera neper bote qe te humbesh sa me pak nga kursimet e tua Berti.
Pershendetje.

[Berti]

Faleminderit per preokupimin mbi kursimet e mia Vinny por kursimet e mia jane akoma short ose put ne aksionet USA dhe nuk kam akoma ndermend te mbulohem.
Ne forumin e vjeter kam shkruar e sugjeruar qe para 2 vjetesh kete depresion te sotem por askush nuk e vizitonte e me vinte veshin.
5 vjet spekullim bursistik dhe studime historike me kane treguar qe bursa eshte barometri kryesor i ekonomise se nje vendi.Ne vitet 30 para depresionit ne USA,indeksi i Dow kshte humbur 50% e ekonomistet derdellisnin e thonin qe nuk do te kish depresion.Pas depresionit Dow ishte ngritur me 25% e keta thonin qe depresioni akoma nuk kish kaluar.

Para nje viti,insider te ndryshem jepnin Target Price prej 20-50$ per ndermarrje qe sot nuk ekzistojne me ose kane kaluar ne OTC: BB.Sot akoma pa pike turpi insider te ndryshem japin TP prej te tilla shifrash per te tjera ndermarrje te destinuara te vdesin.

Te ftoj te shikosh kete link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/w/wcom.html

Sikur une te kisha ndjekur ate qe thuhej ne NYSE(ate qe thoshin keta profesorat ketu) para 1-2 vjetesh do te kisha lene jo vetem kursimet e mia por edhe ato te tuat e te gjith Shqiperise.

Depresioni eshte akoma ne fillim!

pershendetje
Berti

[Vinny_T]

Me fal po nuk po e kuptoj çfare po quan ti depresion e me duket se nuk po flasim te njeten gjuhe?!
Flm per link po si e di dhe ti mire informacione per ekonomine dhe per bursen ke me tonelata dhe nga me diverset , problemi eshte se kush bie te informacioni kredibel. Po ti lexosh te gjithe jane pak a shume bindes mbi llogjiken qe zhvillojne ne informacionin qe japin po problemi eshte rezultati. Zhvillimi i ketij viti do te jete +3% ne usa dhe deri tani shifrat e gjashtemujorit te pare konfirmojne kete version. Bursa do kohe me teper qe te reagoje ne funksion te shifrave mbi ekonomine pasi te rrifitosh besimin e investitoreve nuk behet dot brenda dites. I njeti fenomen ndodhi dhe kur ndermarjet jepnin profit warnings ne fund te 1999, bursa reagoi vetem 6 muaj mbrapa dhe vetem atehere filloi te bindej qe parashikimet e dhena sdo te mbaheshin me dot dhe po shkohej drejt katastrofes.
Pershendetje

[Berti]

E leme si thua ti.Ke te drejte..............................

[Dita]

WorldCom


Nga Wall Street Journal


WorldCom Seeks Court Protection
From Creditors Under Chapter 11

By SHAWN YOUNG, CARRICK MOLLENKAMP, JARED SANDBERG and HENNY SENDER
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL



WorldCom Inc. filed for bankruptcy-court protection late Sunday, succumbing to $41 billion of debt and an accounting scandal that has destroyed its access to capital.

WorldCom, which has $35 billion in annual revenue but is now nearly out of money, filed under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The filing, which shields the company from its creditors as it reorganizes, was made in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York. The company intends to continue its normal operations. WorldCom's board had unanimously approved the step at a meeting Sunday afternoon.


WORLDCOM'S FALL




WorldCom, parent of MCI, is the nation's second-largest long-distance provider and serves 20 million consumers and thousands of corporate customers. In its filing, the company, based in Clinton, Miss., lists assets valued at $107 billion, making the bankruptcy filing by far the largest in U.S. corporate history. Enron Corp., which had been the largest bankruptcy until now, listed assets of $63.4 billion.

Analysts believe, however, that WorldCom's assets today may be valued at less than $15 billion.

"The shame of it all is that underlying the debt and the restatement and the alleged fraud is a really great company that will ultimately survive," said Chief Executive John Sidgmore in an interview Sunday. "If we can emerge from bankruptcy without the debt load, we can have a strong position in the industry. We might emerge with the strongest balance sheet."

WorldCom's list of creditors, which reads like a who's who of Wall Street, is made up mostly of bondholders and bank lenders. The largest noteholder is J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s J.P. Morgan Trust Co. which, as a trustee, lists $17.2 billion. As a trustee, J.P. Morgan Trust doesn't necessarily own the bonds, but it is simply an administrator for the investor that owns the bonds.

As expected, the banks that loaned WorldCom $2.65 billion in May, just weeks before WorldCom imploded, are on the list, with Deutsche Bank AG, the largest bank loan creditor, seeking $241 million. ABN Amro Bank NV is owed $203 million.

The filing was made by WorldCom and its roughly 180 domestic subsidiaries, but it doesn't include the company's foreign affiliates.

WorldCom intends to sell off nonessential assets and focus on key businesses so it can emerge from bankruptcy protection as a viable company. As part of the court process, WorldCom creditors, including bondholders and banks, will jockey for payment. The bankruptcy almost certainly will wipe out common shareholders, who are last in line among stakeholders in such a proceeding. WorldCom has about three billion common shares outstanding. WorldCom plans to continue serving its residential and business customers, but it faces a major challenge to hang on to them, as some have begun voicing concern that the company's financial condition could impact service.


Mr. Sidgmore, who took over after veteran CEO Bernard Ebbers was ousted in April, plans to remain in charge, though some bondholders in interviews have raised the possibility that they will seek new management to start fresh. The company will hire a restructuring adviser, who would report to Mr. Sidgmore, to handle relations with the creditors' committee and help keep management from becoming so distracted by the bankruptcy details that it can't run the company.

WorldCom's longer-term tasks will be more difficult. It has to protect the rapidly eroding value of its brand. And it has to decide what its core business should be. WorldCom doesn't have a group of assets it can easily spin off to raise billions of dollars. Some minor assets, such as the company's Brazilian and Mexican operations, could be easily disentangled from the rest of the company, but they wouldn't raise much money.

The expected bankruptcy filing caps a spiraling series of troubles that culminated in disgrace last month when WorldCom admitted to what could turn out to be the biggest accounting fraud ever. WorldCom misstated $3.8 billion in expenses over five quarters in a way that allowed it to report profits when it actually lost a total of about $1.2 billion in that period. The company will have to restate financial results for 2001 and the first quarter of 2002. The move placed WorldCom at the front of a growing line of scandal-tinged flameouts among major companies that have undermined investors' faith in the market and sent stocks reeling.

WorldCom, whose high-profile former CEO Mr. Ebbers once boasted that his company's stock was more valuable than cash, had a market capitalization of about $120 billion at its peak in the summer of 1999. By Friday, with expectations widespread of its impending bankruptcy filing, WorldCom's market capitalization had dwindled to $280 million, a good deal less than Mr. Ebbers's $408 million loan from the company.



Largest holders of WorldCom's debt, as of most recent filing


Holder............................................ Value at Maturity Date*
Calpers........................................... ......................$387.50
Prudential Global Asset Mgmt...................................386.5
Metropolitan Life Insurance......................................300 .3
The Vanguard Group............................................. ....281.9
Travelers Asset Mgmt. Int'l........................................270.1
Northwestern Investment Mgmt..................................267
Alliance Capital Mgmt.............................................. ..253.9
AIG Global Investment Group....................................253.1
American Express Fncl. Advisors................................212.4
Wellington Mgmt.............................................. ..........212.1


Note: Based on the most recent filings, made at the end of March,
some holders may have sold since then.

*In millions. Does not include private portfolio data

Source: Capital Access International




Bondholders are the dominant creditors and will have one of the loudest voices in determining the company's fate.

One of the first things WorldCom will do now that it has filed will be to ask the bankruptcy-court judge to approve a $2 billion bank loan in the form of senior secured debtor-in-possession financing. WorldCom said Sunday it has secured $750 million of the $2 billion to use in the interim. One of the stipulations the banks made is that WorldCom hire a chief restructuring officer to shepherd WorldCom through what has the potential to be a daunting reorganization.

WorldCom's debtor-in-possession funding was arranged by lead bank Citigroup Inc. along with J.P. Morgan Chase and General Electric Co.'s financial-services arm, GE Capital. Providing the financing gives these institutions what is called "super-priority" status among WorldCom creditors, which means they will be repaid for the new loans before anyone else.

Another early step will be for WorldCom to seek authority to pay bills outstanding to some creditors -- so-called "critical trade vendors" -- before it pays bills owed to other creditors. That step is taken to ensure good relations and critical service. An early court battle could occur over how WorldCom categorizes the regional Bell companies, which provide much of the nation's local-phone service. The Bells could be categorized as utilities and therefore wouldn't have to be paid immediately for past bills.

But the Bells could argue that without the ability to connect to local phone networks, WorldCom wouldn't be able to function. The regional Bells are: Verizon Communications Inc., SBC Communications Inc., BellSouth Corp. and Qwest Communications International Inc. WorldCom owes Verizon, which the largest of the Bells, $121 million, according to the filing.

The Bells, which are also WorldCom's competitors, have been demanding upfront payments, as have other suppliers, as the company's fortunes slumped. That demand sharply accelerated the rate at which WorldCom burned through its remaining cash and hastened a bankruptcy filing that already seemed inevitable. Even with WorldCom in bankruptcy-court protection, the regional Bells seem inclined to take a tough stance.

"We will take an aggressive approach to protecting the interests of our shareholders," said Peter Thonis, a spokesman for Verizon.

Some people familiar with the situation say that WorldCom's cash flow could improve significantly because of the protection a Chapter 11 filing provides and that the company may not need much of the $2 billion in loans that will be available. For example, WorldCom won't have to pay $500 million in estimated quarterly interest expenses that go to WorldCom's bondholders.

"Working capital could actually shift to be a significant" help to WorldCom's operations, said Banc of America high-yield analyst Trent Spiridellis.


There is some desire among bondholders for Mr. Sidgmore to step down, said people familiar with the bondholders' views. Such changes are common in bankruptcies, particularly if the existing management is tainted in any way. Mr. Sidgmore has denied any knowledge of the accounting improprieties, but some bondholders believe he lacks the heavyweight management credentials the company needs and was too close to Mr. Ebbers and fired Chief Financial Officer Scott Sullivan.

Mr. Sidgmore said he doesn't believe his departure would benefit the company. "If you believe the company is going to be liquidated, then that's what you need," he said. "If you believe that the company is going to be rebuilt, then I think they're dead wrong."

"We haven't heard any outcry to displace management," said Marcia Goldstein, a senior partner at Weil Gotshal & Manges, which is handling the WorldCom bankruptcy procedures.

"The most important thing is to ensure stability of the operations," says Daniel Golden, the Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP lawyer for the bondholders making up the informal creditors' committee. "To preserve WorldCom's network of customers and suppliers, speed is key."

At Sunday's meeting, WorldCom's board approved two new board members to succeed Mr. Ebbers and Mr. Sullivan. The company named Nicholas Katzenbach, 80 years old, a former undersecretary of state, attorney general, and Yale Law School professor; and Dennis Beresford, a 64-year-old professor of accounting at the University of Georgia who formerly served as the chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board.

Some of the stakeholders in the bankruptcy say once WorldCom's balance sheet is clean, it could become an attractive acquisition target for the Bells or other competitors. Mr. Sidgmore said some would-be buyers are interested enough to have hired investment bankers to assess possible deals. But so far, some prospective buyers are still intensely wary of the company's weakening core business and the many unknowns that still could lurk in the company's books.


Updated July 22, 2002

[Dita]

Nga agjenci lajmesh.


Si shprese e fundit paraqitet riorganizimi i ndermarrjes. WorldCom e ka lerkuar kete gje ne kuader te legjislacionit amerikan per falimentet e ndermarrjeve, sipas te cilit nje ndermarrje mund te siguroje te drejten qe te vazhdoje biznesin nderkohe qa ajo punon per nje plan riorganizimi.

World Com pret nje financim te menjehershem prej 2 Miliarde dollaresh. Firmat bija qe operojne ne vendet e tjera nuk jane te perfshira ne kete proces falimenti.


Burimi finanaciar i mundeson shoqerise te vazhdoje rregullisht biznesin, te punoje per nje plan strategjik financiar, te ristrukturoje financat, te pakesoje borxhet.

Shoqeria ka bere te ditur pushimin nga puna te 17.000 punonjesve, qe perbejne 20% te teresise se punonjesve te angazhuar nga shoqeria ne te gjithe boten.




World Com ehte aktive ne me shume se 65 vende dhe nese pushimi i planifikuar nuk do te ndodhte do te kishte 60.000 punonjes te angazhuar ne biznesin e vet. Shoqeria ka me shume se 20 milione kliente tekefonike dhe mijera ndermarrje te perfshira ne klientelen e vet.

Shoqeria mban ne pune dhe rrjetin me te madh te internetit ne te gjithe boten me te ardhura vjetore ne vleren e 35,2 miliardeve dollare.

Pas berjes se ditur te zhvillimeve te fundit brenda shoqerise, aksionet e saj rane ne nje nivel fare prane zeros. Ne vitin 1999 aksionet kishin nje vlere prej 64,50 dollare, sot ato gjenden ne nivelin e 9 centeve.

Nepermjet fakturimeve false ne vlere prej 3,85 miliarde dollerave ne vitin 2001 dhe ne kuartalin e pare te ketij viti, WorldCom ka bilancuar fitime te larta fiktive.
Komisioni per Letrat me Vlere dhe Bursen (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC), ka ngritur padi kundra World Com.

[Eni]

dhe WorldCom dje ishte nje nga ato qe bene qe bursa ne N.W. te shenonte tjeter rekord negativ.

Pra pervec te premtes se zeze pame e nje te hene te zeze, tjeter dite te javes me kuota negative a do te shohim?

Ç'thone ekonomistet per keto kuota negative, sa mund te zgjasin dhe cilat mund te jene rrugedaljet nga kriza ?

Amerikaneve fjalet e presidentit Bush Jr. s'po ua mbushin mendjen, dhe si rrjedhim besimi ka rene shume, çka duket e ne kuotat e ulta ne burse.

Por dhe ne Evrope dje jane shenuar kuota shume te ulta ne Burse, sidomos ne Angli e France.

[Berti]

Indekset USA kane takuar suportin statik dhe supozoj nje mini bullish market.Fillim i nje minitrendi (nga pikpamja grafike)