Ekonomia amerikane, rritja me e larte ne 20 vjet

[Albo]

U.S. economy on a tear

Third-quarter growth of 7.2 percent is strongest in nearly two decades; will job growth follow?
October 30, 2003: 2:26 PM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. economic growth surged in the third quarter of 2003 to the fastest pace in nearly two decades, the government said Thursday, in a report that was much stronger than most economists expected.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, grew at a 7.2 percent annual rate in the quarter after growing at a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported. Economists, on average, expected GDP growth of 6 percent, according to Briefing.com.

"This is obviously an extraordinarily strong report, led by the consumer, but also with good signs about the state of the business sector and business confidence," said Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus.

The burst of GDP growth was led by a 6.6 percent growth rate in consumer spending, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 1997. Consumer spending grew at a 3.8 percent pace in the second quarter.

Child tax credit checks and lower rates of income tax withholding helped fuel the third-quarter spending surge, enabling the Bush administration -- which pushed for tax cuts earlier this year -- to take a victory lap Thursday morning.

"The tax relief we passed is working. We left more money in the hands of the American people and the American people are moving this economy forward," Bush said at a speech in Columbus, Ohio, adding "We cannot expect economic growth numbers like this every quarter."

Still few jobs
Though earlier this month Treasury Secretary John Snow predicted that new jobs were soon to be added at the rate of 200,000 per month, other White House officials on Thursday were quick to note that the economy's recent burst of energy had yet to create many jobs.

"We need to continue to act to build upon the steps we have taken to get our economy growing so we can continue to translate growth into job creation," said White House spokesman Scott McClellan, according to a Reuters report.

The Labor Department, in a separate report Thursday, said new weekly claims for unemployment benefits were still relatively high in the week ending Oct. 25.

In fact, during a quarter with the strongest growth rate since 1984, total employment fell by 165,000 jobs, according to Labor Department statistics, in part because of strong productivity growth, which enables companies to get more work out of fewer workers.

But most economists hope that continued strong demand will eventually catch up with the recent gains in productivity and lead to sustained job growth.

"The good news for workers is that productivity growth cannot continue at this pace. Demand will translate into jobs very soon, and in fact I think it's happening right now," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston.

"But that's still largely a hope, not a certainty," Cheney added

The impact of inventories
Many economists expect the impact of the tax cuts to fade in the fourth quarter, and the cash flow from mortgage refinancings, another boon to third-quarter economic growth, is expected to diminish as well. As a result, most economists expect a slower pace of GDP growth, about 4 percent, in the fourth quarter.

A decline in business inventories in the third quarter, however, could mean GDP will get a boost in the fourth quarter, if and when businesses re-stock their shelves.

"The plunge in inventory accumulation does suggest that firms are not confident enough to add merchandise to their shelves," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors. "But they will not be able to do this indefinitely because everyone knows that sporting empty shelves in a rising growth environment is not prudent."

Without the decline in inventories, final sales rose at a 7.8 percent pace in the third quarter, the strongest rate since the second quarter of 1978, when final sales were rose at a 16.7 percent rate.

Cars, homes lead the charge
Much of the strength in consumer spending in the third quarter was in durable goods, items meant to last three years or more, and much of that strength was in sales of motor vehicles and parts, which alone contributed 1.17 percentage points to the total pace of GDP growth.

Record home sales also contributed to GDP growth in the quarter; residential investment boomed to a 20.4 percent annual pace, compared with 6.6 percent in the second quarter.

Nonresidential fixed investment rose at a 11.1-percent annual rate, following the second quarter's 7.3 percent pace, a sign of continuing strength in business spending. Investment in equipment and software rose at a 15.4 percent pace, the strongest rate since the first quarter of 2000, compared with 8.3 percent in the second quarter.

Weakness in imports -- which subtract from GDP, since they represent goods and services bought from other nations -- also helped total GDP growth. Imports grew at just a 0.1 percent pace in the quarter, while exports surged at a 9.3 percent growth rate.

Government spending, which contributed mightily to the second quarter's growth rate, slowed down. Defense spending, which grew at a 45.8 percent pace in the second quarter, driven by spending on the war in Iraq, was flat in the third quarter.

The personal consumption expenditure price deflator, an inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose to 1.7 percent from 1.0 percent in the second quarter.

The Fed recently left its target for its key short-term interest rate unchanged at levels not seen consistently since 1958, saying the recent surge in economic growth had not changed its outlook for inflation. The Fed has maintained for several months that it is worried about inflation getting too low, which could hurt corporate profits and economic growth.

"We believe that the Fed will require both consistent solid hiring and a rise in inflation before it begins to lift rates," said UBS Warburg chief economist Maury Harris.

[Albo]

Payroll numbers grow again

Big gain marks 3rd straight positive month, but job market has room to grow, Fed has time to wait.

November 7, 2003: 12:13 PM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. payrolls grew in October for the third straight month, the government said Friday, trouncing Wall Street expectations as the labor market accelerated its recovery from its longest slump since World War II.

Though good news for thousands of workers and for President Bush politically, many economists warned job growth was still not fully up to speed, meaning the Federal Reserve could remain on the sidelines, keeping rates low with little fear of inflation.

Unemployment fell to 6.0 from 6.1 percent in September, the Labor Department reported, while payrolls outside the farm sector rose by 126,000 jobs after rising by a revised 125,000 in September.

Economists, on average, expected an unemployment rate of 6.1 percent and payroll growth of 58,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll.

"Today's employment report is just one month's report, but it's the one we've been waiting for, providing unambiguous good news about the labor market," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston.

It was the biggest month for job growth since January, when payrolls grew by 158,000 jobs. With significant upward revisions to August and September data, payrolls have grown three straight months, the longest stretch since August through November 2002.

Payrolls at service-producing industries, including retail, education and health care, grew by 143,000 jobs in October. Goods-producing industries shed another 17,000 jobs.

On Wall Street, which may have been expecting a strong number, stock prices posted only small gains in midday trading. Treasury bond prices fell, driving yields higher as traders may expect the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates sooner rather than later.

Fed behind the curve?
After cutting their key short-term interest rate to the lowest levels in more than 41 years, Fed policy makers have been sitting on their hands in recent months, saying the economy's recovery wasn't strong enough to create significant job growth or drive inflation higher.

Some observers have become frustrated with the Fed's inaction, suggesting it's out of touch with reality, and their criticism only grew louder after Friday's job report.

"This report is a real dilemma for the manic depressives on the [Fed's policy committee]," said Joel Naroff, president and chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors. "They may have to admit that with the labor market improving, the economy is in good shape."

Other economists note, however, that job growth is still not strong enough to keep up with the 150,000 or so new entrants to the labor force every month, and few economists expect a significant decline in the unemployment rate in the next year.

"We're not talking about adding 300,000 jobs, which is what you get when things are really going well; we're still a long way from that," said Robert MacIntosh, Fed watcher and chief economist at Eaton Vance Management. "I don't think it's an issue at all from an inflationary standpoint."

Payrolls are still 2.4 million jobs smaller than in March 2001, when the 2001 recession began. Though job growth has come in spurts since then, payrolls are still about 800,000 jobs lower than in November 2001, when the recession officially ended.

Strong, technology-driven growth in productivity, or output per worker hour, has contributed to the jobless nature of the recovery. But a 7.2-percent annualized rate of economic growth in the third quarter, driven by a consumer-spending boom fueled by tax rebate checks and the proceeds of mortgage refinancing, forced production to accelerate even more, finally creating demand for labor.

The politics of jobs
Bush administration officials took credit for Friday's report, saying the tax cuts the White House pushed earlier this year had triggered the burst of job growth.

"Three months of sustained job creation shows that President Bush's agenda is helping our economy grow," said Commerce Secretary Donald Evans.

Bush's reelection chances will likely benefit if the job gains seen in September and October accelerate into 2004. His father lost a re-election bid in 1992 due to the impression that he was not doing enough to fix an anemic labor market.

But Bush's opponents noted that monthly job growth hasn't yet come close to the rate the White House promised when pushing for tax cuts earlier this year, and it hasn't yet come close to the slower rate of 200,000 per month Treasury Secretary John Snow promised recently.

"Until we can reach and sustain job growth of at least 150,000 every month, there will be growing slack in the job market. And until that happens, we are unlikely to see the kind of healthy wage and income growth that can sustain a strong recovery," said Lee Price, research director at the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank.

Should payrolls be even stronger?
If there was anything disappointing about Friday's report, in fact, it's that job growth hasn't been more robust, given the strength of the economy and the tidal wave of fiscal and monetary stimulus from the government and the Fed.

"To put this in perspective, a couple of years into recovery, we should be seeing 250,000 to 300,000 new jobs per month," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "We're not there yet."

What's more, the recovery in the labor market has not yet caught up with wages, critical to the strength of consumer spending, which fuels more than two-thirds of the economy. The Labor Department said average hourly wages rose just a penny, or 0.1 percent, to $15.46 from $15.45 in September, when wages were flat.

About 8.8 million people were unemployed in October, the department said, 2 million of whom have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer.

Temporary help services payrolls rose by about 17,000 jobs. Many economists believe this is a hopeful sign, since companies will often hire temps before making permanent hires. Other economists note, however, that temp payrolls have risen several months in a row and suggest some businesses may be using temp workers to avoid paying benefits.

The average work week grew to 33.8 hours from 33.7 in September, indicating businesses increased activity in October. Manufacturing hours were flat at 40.5, and overtime hours were flat at 4.2.

[Veshtrusja]

Disa fakte ne lidhje me tregetin:

Tregetia boterore eshte duke u rritur me shpejt per vende te tjera se sa per Ameriken. Por kur flasim per volume absolute te importimeve dhe eksportimeve, Amerika, eshte akoma drejtuesja e botes se tregetis.

Pak a shume, edhe pse tregetia boterore nuk eshte nje nga faktoret e medhej te GDP-es se Amerikes (gje e mire kjo), Amerika prap eshte drejtuese kryesore ne tregetine boterore.

Amerika ka nje deficit ne tregetin e mallrave. Importon me teper se sa eksporton.

Amerika ka nje suficit ne tregetine e sherbimit. Eksporton me teper sherbim se sa importon.

Kanadaja eshte partneri i tregetis me kuantitative per Ameriken.

Amerika ka deficite te medhaja ne tregetin me Japonin dhe Kinen (importon me teper se sa eksporton me 'to)